T1 2024 Featherweight Division: Campeón e Campeão
The featherweight division experienced a historic first tertile in 2024. World titles were contended for, rankings were proven, legacy was defined, and exciting prospects arose.
1. ASCENSION OF THE INGUSH
Prior to the freezing January evening in Downtown Toronto, it was common knowledge among fans that UFC 297 was a mediocre card with a high probability of being terrible. This was realized on January 20th in the UFC’s first event in the “416” since December 2018. One fight that was not only brilliant but also important for the division it took place in was Arnold Allen vs Movsar Evloev. Neither the #4 ranked Allen nor the #9 ranked Evloev were big names that could carry a PPV, but both were highly talented FWs who were on the brink of title contention.
Evloev, the only Ingush signed to the UFC, was undefeated in 17 fights. Even before joining the UFC, Evloev’s record held multiple championship wins in M-1 Global. His UFC tenure spanned 7 fights total and often overwhelmed foes with his chain wrestling. Arnold Allen started his UFC career with 10 wins in a row and often battled his injuries more than his octagon opponents. A chance of contending for the FW title was cut short after losing a competitive title eliminator to ex-champion and all-time great Max Holloway.
The relatively low and even number of strikes landed make the 1st round easy to score on rewatch. Every significant strike or what could be mistaken as a significant strike is shown in chronological order. Evloev exceeded Allen’s bodywork with just 1 round kick while landing the two best punches (1:58, 0:16) of the round.
To add insult to injury, Evloev scored on effective grappling with this mat return. Allen crashes into the canvas with most of the impact going to his right shoulder. It’s not much, but it’s honest work.
The 1st round was a low volume affair where neither contender landed many punches or kicks. Evloev started the fight with a round kick that cracked the left side ribs. Jabs were present from both in this southpaw vs orthodox matchup. Allen also started working the body with a left cross and hook to the abdomen. After the first half of the opening round, Evloev starts working his wheelhouse and overwhelming Allen’s defenses with takedowns off punches. Allen did well to defend them as he refused to concede positions by Granby rolling and grip-fighting the rear body lock. By the end of the 1st round, it was relatively clear that Evloev was up 1-0.
Round 2 was an even clearer round for the undefeated Ingush. It reflected the closing betting odds of the match with Evloev as the slight favourite. Round kicks to the head and the body were present for Evloev against the southpaw foe. Allen wasn’t completely outmatched but he was getting beaten at his own game within kickboxing range. Although he didn’t concede bad grappling positions, Movsar was walking away with the fight and a brutal sequence in the last minute of the round drops Allen to one knee. With the sound of the round bell, Allen’s face is a bloody mess from lacerations and his corner lets him know that a finish is needed to win.
With a fire lit under him, Allen fought as his corner wanted him to. He found his best success in this round as he chased for the finish. Grappling for Evloev reached a point of complete neutrality. The most consequential action in round 3 were 4 consecutive knees that Allen landed on Evloev. This would prove to me a major controversy as the knees would have been legal under the Unified Rules of MMA but illegal in the province of Ontario. When MMA was legalized in the province in 2010, the rules adopted were from the 2001 New Jersey State Athletic Commission. Under the “old rules”, any part of the body touching the canvas that wasn’t the soles of feet would define a grounded opponent. For the first 2 knees, Evloev’s fingers were clearly on the canvas with the knees lifting his body and fingers upwards. Despite cuts on the side of his head, Evloev did not look for a way out and battled on. At one point, Allen locks a tight Ninja choke that Evloev was able to gator roll out of. The final bell sounded with Evloev winning a 29-28 decision against his best opponent to date.
A dishonest and somewhat predictable controversy arose in this fight as many insisted that Arnold Allen won round 1. Despite a rather clear edge in effective striking for Evloev on rewatch, this uneducated narrative persists. Much noise is made about Allen’s strikes landed but not about Evloev’s more powerful shots of that same round. Nevertheless, that narrative is reserved for the lowest common denominator.
With a significant win against his first top 5 ranked opponent, Evloev established himself as one of the division’s top fighters and a worthy challenger to the UFC champion. UFC president Dana White’s comments played a different tune as he claimed that it was the worst fight of the night. Looking forward, Arnold Allen aims to snap his current 2-fight skid as his hopes for title contention dampen.
2. SLAYING OF THE MATADOR
The UFC featherweight title lineage is among the most prestigious in all of MMA. Being a direct continuation of the WEC title lineage, it dates all the way back to 2002. Since Jose Aldo’s dominant win against Mike Thomas Brown in 2009, this lineage spans a total of 4 unique champions and contains 3 lengthy title reigns. Each of these 4 unique champions – Jose Aldo, Conor McGregor, Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski – are all-time greats with the most recent not having lost at FW. Volkanovski’s title reign began in December 2019 and recently passed the 4-year milestone prior to UFC 298.
Ilia “El Matador” Topuria was the young hungry challenger sporting an undefeated 14-0 record. His resume wasn’t remarkable compared to some of the other title challengers – his dominance, aptitude in boxing, and high finish rate were impossible to ignore. The challenger’s attributes of interest include: excellent pressure boxing, competent wrestling, oppressive submission grappling, and a very athletic build. To avoid the possibility of losing another potential contender to Max Holloway, the champion looked to face this newcomer as soon as possible. If successfully defended, this would be Volkanovski’s 6th title defense.
The champ entered with two inhibiting X factors. The first was that his most recent fight was just 4 months prior against the UFC lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev. This conclusive end to Volkanovski’s double champ aspirations led to the first concussion suffered in his entire athletic career. The 2nd X factor was that Volkanovski reached the age of 35 just 5 months prior to UFC 298. UFC fighters aged 35 or over held a 2-22 record in the Flyweight to Welterweight divisions. The only two wins are from Tyron Woodley with one of those wins against a 40-year-old Demian Maia. With these two factors in mind, the challenger’s chances of becoming champion became more obvious.
Volkanovski entered with a clear strategy in mind – become the Matador to El Matador. Topuria was a pressure boxer who fought more like bull than Matador. His work was primarily with his hands and his best work was in combination. The champ looked to occupy the foe’s right hand with lead left kicks to the body and forearm. The left hands would define the fencing match. By limiting pocket exchanges, Volk looked to win an outfighting battle of jabs and low kicks. This strategy was largely successful for the 1st round of the fight. Often beaten to the punch, the challenger was left frustrated but not discouraged as he began keying in on Volk’s exploitable habits of linear retreating and stance switching.
Despite the skill gap in their outfighting, Topuria was not conceding to Volkanovski’s game. When pocket entries were too sporadic, Topuria would start using jabs and low kicks of his own. The low kicking game of Topuria was notably present in his previous fight and clearly marked an evolution in his approach to the fight game. The first 2 low kicks caught Volk by surprise and took him off balance. Topuria’s jabs prevented the outfighting from being a blowout, it also helped him find pocket entries.
The biggest success realized by Topuria, even prior to the end, was inside of the pocket. Topuria possessed KO power even in the weight class above and likely led to Volk’s sustained outfighting approach. Within the clinch, Volk looked for collar ties to land knees. 2 of these clinch exchanges resulted in knees to Topuria’s body. The third clinch exchange was prematurely stopped by the fight-ending right hook in the pocket. Avoiding pocket exchanges at all cost manifesting into Volk’s strategy. One strategy that was either absent or inefficient was preparation for the worst-case scenario – when the pocket exchanges cannot be avoided. Based on the limited instances within the fight, Volk’s solution appeared to be either (1) linearly retreat backwards or (2) grab collar ties for the clinch.
If you’ve seen enough clinch exchanges in MMA, it should be obvious that collar ties don’t prevent the foe from hitting back. Jon Jones found out in his 1st fight against Daniel Cormier and Volkanovski found out the worst way possible against Ilia Topuria. With a picture-perfect right hook, a 50-months strong title reign ended with a bang. Ilia Topuria is the 5th FW champion in UFC history and achieved superstardom in the nation of Spain being featured on the front cover MARCA, the nation’s biggest sports magazine. He’s already expressed desire to retire by the age of 30 or 32 which would leave 3-5 years to write his own remarkable story of becoming and remaining the world champion.
3. REJUVENATION OF THE EAGLE
Brian Ortega is a fighter who experienced both the rapid ascension to the top of the division and the slow decay as an inactive contender. When asked about his time off from the first Yair Rodriquez fight by the media, he responded with a ludicrous fact that you’d see on old Facebook posts. The fact in question is that eagles are capable of living for 70 years. After 40 years, the eagle loses the sharpness of its beak and the usefulness of its feathers and talons. At this crossroad in life, it can either accept dying or isolate itself and rebirth. This rebirth involves (1) smashing its beak against a rock, (2) growing the beak back, (3) plucking its old feathers out, (4) stripping its old talons off, and (5) regrowing its feathers and talons to live the remaining 30 years. This of course is a load of malarkey, but Ortega found inspiration in this story as he claims to have revised his approach to the fight game during the time off.
The rematch between Brian “T-City” Ortega and Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez was one that very few fans actually asked for. Their 1st fight was a main event in Long Island during July 2022 that ended in a round 1 injury – Brian Ortega dislocated his shoulder while defending an armbar submission. Inactivity marked both of their recent careers as they averaged roughly 1 fight per year each. To make matters worse, both Yair and Ortega were ranked top 5 fighters which meant that the FW division stagnated as a result due to few opportunities for upcomers to enter the top 5. This fight was to take place in Mexico City, infamous for its high altitude that taxed cardio since the 1968 Summer Olympics. It was also meant to be the rare 5 round non-title fight co-main event to another rematch in a different division, Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval.
Although not a fight in high demand, both combatants were known for their exciting but stark fighting styles. Yair was kickboxer with a diverse set of taekwondo kicks while Ortega was a submission grappling ace with effective pressure boxing. Both of these top 5 in-name-only fighters looked to redirect their career trajectories to another title shot. Topuria inheriting the throne allowed for a more convincing argument for the winner of this fight to another title fight in comparison to the previous champion Volkanovski who dominated both of them.
The beginning of the fight could not have gone worse for the rebirthed eagle. During Bruce Buffer’s intro of the fighters, Ortega sprains his right ankle and entered the opening round compromised. Picking off from their previous fight, Ortega looked to crowd Yair to reduce the effectiveness of his kicks and find the takedown along the fence. A thrashing by Yair shortly ensued and Ortega was hurt to the body and the head multiple times and eventually knocked down. In the final minute of the 1st round, Ortega was able to reverse position catch his breath before the end of the round. The worst that Ortega sustained was over for the time being.
Round 2 went substantially better for T-City as he completed the double leg along the cage in 70 seconds. The disparity in BJJ skill was very apparent when Ortega established top control. Yair had no means of getting up without conceding the back mount or a submission. With the head and shoulder pinned against the cage, slicing elbows cut open Yair and his momentum from the opening round was gone. By round 3, Ortega now had full control of the fight and was able to secure takedowns and the mount in short time. A modified arm triangle choke ends the fight in the 1st minute of that round. Unaware that Yair is tapping, the referee had to pry Ortega off but it didn’t appear to be a case of foul play as remorse was visibly on display.
In a Gracie Breakdown video, Ortega went into greater details about fight week and the events that transpired during the fight. The modified arm triangle choke was a technique that Ortega used for the past 2 years as a means to defeat the most common defensive maneuver to arm triangles, being to roll away.
With his first win since October 2020, Brian Ortega staved off criticism of his inactivity for another 10 months. At the age of 33, Ortega’s best days are likely behind him and concerns about his body’s durability and his chin come into question. Parts of his game like his wrestling have shown improvement but the decline in athleticism results in a lesser “eagle”. Yair’s next fight is uncertain but title contention or even top-5 status is unlikely in the foreseeable future.
4. LONGEVITY OF THE DAWG
Longevity in sports often accompanies the topic of an athlete’s greatness. Being great for 1-2 seasons or fights is not what distinguishes the greatest athletes in a given sport. The greatest athletes in sports generally have one thing in common, they were the best of their generation and they succeeded at the top level over a substantial period of time – in the simplest of terms, longevity. MMA’s understanding of greatness is still underdeveloped, largely as a result of the sport being young and its popularity being exponential over time.
Most fans, including new ones understand why Jon Jones or Georges St-Pierre are the most common “GOAT” candidates. Fewer fans know of Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, who attains a high degree of longevity. He made his MMA debut in 2004, just 2 years after GSP’s MMA debut. If you take any MMA fighter and check their status 20 years after their debut, the overwhelming majority of them are retired. The few that compete are rarely capable of beating even a step down in competition. Patricio Pitbull is an anomaly in lengthy MMA careers. In his 20th year as a pro, he still competes with some of the best MMA fighters outside of the UFC. Bellator’s FW division has been the best division outside of the UFC since the 2013 UFC-Strikeforce merger. In addition to being Pitbull’s division, it’s been home to many elite talents like Pat Curran, Daniel Strauss, Daniel Weichel, and AJ McKee.
Despite his longevity, Pitbull’s career in 2023 was largely a disaster – he didn’t win either of his two fights. The 1st was his bantamweight debut against the champion Sergio Pettis in an attempt to become champion in 3 divisions. The 2nd was a short notice fight against a Rizin kickboxer at lightweight. The end result was a 50-45 decision loss and a first round KO loss. Returning to his division, Patricio Pitbull looked to defend the Bellator crown that he still held vs Jeremy Kennedy. The challenger was a grinding wrestler with barebones striking and a former UFC fighter who was cut from the promotion based on fighting style rather than lack of skill.
Like Volkanovski, Patricio Pitbull employed the strategy of outfighting to neutralize Kennedy’s grappling and clinch work. Unlike Volkanovski, Pitbull’s karate boxing and counter punching was a well-known approach against all his opponents since 2017. It also offset his deteriorating athleticism as this counter punching approach slowed the fight down to a comfortable pace. Kennedy’s skillset at boxing and kickboxing range was very raw and found very little success in the first two rounds. The few punches that Kennedy landed highlighted a significant deterioration in Pitbull’s reaction time.
The challenger scored a knockdown with a left hook counter to Pitbull’s low kick. Having the champ badly hurt, Kennedy goes to his roots by clinching up and fence grinding. Later in the round, Pitbull returns the favor but swarms Kennedy with a flurry of punches, elbows, and knees that forced the stoppage in the 3rd round.
In his 20th year as a pro fighter, Patricio Pitbull defended his Bellator title against a global top-30 fighter – an accomplishment that would not have gone unnoticed if it happened in the UFC. The next step for Patricio Pitbull will likely be another title defense against the perennial prospect Aaron Pico.
5. PROGRESSION OF THE PROSPECT
Nobody’s path to their first UFC title fight is the exact same. The historical trend for fighters reaching their initial opportunity at gold is that big names and big sellers will always be given preferential treatment to no-names and no-sellers. In the fight game, this generally translates to exciting fighters having an easier time getting to the top of the division than boring fighters of the same skill level. Diego Lopes is one of the most exciting fighters in the FW division. This Brazilian-Mexican action fighter been here for less than a year and has delivered remarkable performances in all 3 UFC fights thus far.
The Jiu-Jitsu fighter with an aptitude in submissions and transitional offence debuted at UFC 288 against the then-top-10 FW Movsar Evloev in a competitive fight. Despite coming up short in his debut, he went on to defeat his next 2 foes within 4 minutes of octagon time. Heading into the historic event known as UFC 300, Lopes was given his first opportunity against a ranked opponent. The #13 ranked Sodiq Yusuff looked to rebound from a loss 6 months prior.
The transitional offence of Diego Lopes proved to overwhelm foes even at the top 15 level. While they’re concerned about grappling, Diego’s heavy-handedness and finishing instinct on the ground shines through.
Like his other two fights, Lopes found the opening to finish the fight within 90 seconds. The collar tie proved to be lethal as Yusuff was dropped by two right uppercuts in two different clinch exchanges. Unable to defend himself, the referee steps in to save Sodiq Yusuff.
Since his debut loss in May 2023, Lopes scored 3 wins inside of 5 minutes of octagon time. His popularity continues to rise and matchmakers will likely treat him appropriately by giving him an opportunity at a top 10 or even top 5 opponent next. During his post-fight interview, a clear desire to rematch Movsar Evloev was expressed in English.
Determining the 5th most important fight in T1 2024 for the FW division wasn’t easy. I considered Aljamain Sterling’s FW debut where he defeated the #8 ranked Calvin Kattar. I even considered listing Islam Omarov, the presumed best FW outside of the UFC, dominating his foe in the continuing ACA grand prix. My approach settled on viewing the most important fight from the perspective of the UFC title and Diego Lopes was him.
6. CONTINUATION OF THE CROWN
The UFC title picture for the FW division will likely be resolved in T2 2024 and concluded in T3 2024. Multiple viable options exist and a lot of drama on social media persists between newly crowned Ilia Topuria and recently certified “BMF” Max Holloway. Speculation on what the UFC matchmakers will do next is wide open as there exists 4 potential candidates for the next title challenger.
Max Holloway recently immortalized himself with an iconic performance against top 5 LW Justin Gaethje. A masterclass that spanned almost the entirety of the fight and topped off with an iconic buzzer beating KO finish. Having won his last 3 fights and holding an 18-0 record since 2014 against FWs not named Volkanovski, it’s difficult to justify a more deserving contender against El Matador. An increasing desire from fans is the UFC hosting this fight in the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid. No such arrangements have been negotiated so far but Topuria vs Holloway is one of the best fights the UFC can book as of right now.
Despite a rather clear contender, Topuria decided to play the role of negotiator and agitator on social media. His demands include the artificial “BMF” belt and mentioned Brian Ortega as an alternative challenger on more than one occasion if demands aren’t met. Like Holloway, Ortega’s door for title contention was struck wide open with the dethroning of the previous champ who beat him. Unlike Holloway, Ortega’s activity does not match the work of body for title challenger. Very unlike Holloway, Ortega is viewed as an easy foe and being available at the right time could give him the next title shot.
Prior to UFC 298, Volkanovski had not lost at FW with 18 wins in the division and 13 wins within the UFC. Volkanovski could cite the unofficial long-time championship clause for an immediate rematch with Topuria. Health concerns about Volk’s recovery from the second concussion suffered from the KO loss do persist though. The Great’s current desire is to return no earlier than October against whoever holds the belt and the constant quibbling between Topuria and everybody else could provide a window to do so.
The final and least likely candidate for challenging Ilia Topuria at the end of this year is none other than Ingushetia’s finest. With a consistent and hard-earned resume, Movsar Evloev is still the 2nd biggest loser of UFC 298’s results. A Volkanovski win would have likely set up a title shot as he would be the remaining top 5 FW that the former champ didn’t yet beat. Instead, he sits in the Belal Muhammad purgatory and would need the above 3 to fall through as Topuria’s next challenger. His most likely next step will be a matchup against another top 10 or top 5 opponent.
That covers the five most important FW fights for January through April 2024. The next 4 months will likely resolve what’s next for the division’s UFC title. Until next time… Dream, Believe, And Make It Happen.