The Evolution of Ilia Topuria
Everything you need to know about the next UFC Featherweight title challenger
“A quality Martial Artist is always ready for any move, and trains oneself invincible” – Bruce Lee
Maintaining an undefeated record in the sport of boxing is an accomplishment held in increasingly greater regard. To be the best, you have to beat the best. To remain the best, you have to retain the zero. The Ring magazine’s official January 2024 P4P (pound for pound) rankings features seven undefeated boxers in their top 10 list.
The more volatile nature of Mixed Martial Arts makes it more difficult to maintain such a feat compared to boxing. Ilia Topuria is scheduled to challenge FW (featherweight) champion Alex Volkanovski and is the 3rd undefeated challenger in his division’s history. We take a deeper look into El Matador’s evolution as an MMA fighter, starting from his 1st fight and continuing to this day.
Chapter 1: El Chico
“Training errors are recorded on paper. Tactical errors are etched in stone.” – Erwin Rommel
A fighter’s background and their credentials are often the starting points of defining them. Ilia Topuria’s background is in Greco Roman wrestling and sport Jiu Jitsu, both of which have been part of his life since childhood. Topuria made his professional MMA debut at the age of 18, three years after joining a Spanish MMA gym. His first 4 pro fights spanned 2015 and 2016 within the Spanish regional scene.
Gauging a fighter’s potential in their early career and against such low competition can be considered pointless. Three of four opponents may have been debutants, but young Topuria’s approach to these fights are important in mapping out how we got the Topuria of today. His submission grappling approach isn’t a surprise given his background. The details within his approach show the hidden potential of Ilia Topuria.
Despite Greco Roman wrestling prohibiting holds below the waist, Topuria’s primary method of initiating grappling is double leg takedowns in open space as shown in Fig. 1. Despite competing in Gi and Ni-Gi tournaments where top position is not inherently rewarded, he didn’t concede bottom position. Fig. 2 shows that his approach resembles Demian Maia’s more than it does Ryan Hall’s.
Fig. 1
Topuria’s double leg in open space is his predominant method of grounding the foe to this day. He uses it both proactively and reactively, usually ducking under incoming punches. His double leg holds a high success rate due to good timing. A greater opportunity to land in side mount allows Topuria to bypass the step of passing guard, further enhancing the process towards his end goal of a finish.
Fig. 2
Early Topuria follows a consistent process for finding the submission finish. This process involves (a) securing a double leg takedown, (b) passing guard to side mount, (c) stepping over to mount with the aid of the knee on belly if needed, (d) using ground and pound to create any openings, and (e) secure any submissions or back mount entries from these openings.
Takedowns and efficient guard passing are only two thirds of Topuria’s offensive grappling equation. His submissions are what allowed him to finish his early pro fights quickly rather than grinding decisions as a wet blanket. Despite the short time spent in his early fights, Fig. 3 highlights young Topuria’s aptitude for rear naked chokes and submissions from his triangle entries. Many of these submissions wouldn’t be possible without Topuria’s efficient ground and pound. Unlike many other BJJ practitioners in MMA, Topuria makes great use of strikes to open submission opportunities, specifically from the mount position.
Fig. 3
Ilia Topuria was able to consistently bypass hand fighting from the back mount to secure rear naked choke finishes. Against lesser opponents, he could secure triangles and mounted armbars with relative ease.
Something that Topuria showed in his regional tenure that was never shown again was the use of oblique kicks from a bladed karateka stance. These along with the left hook were the only meaningful strikes thrown during his first 4 fights.
To summarize the Topuria from his first 4 pro fights, he’s a grappler who follows a consistent process of securing high probability submissions. Young Topuria identified what works for his MMA submission grappling by incorporating intelligent tactics and not just sound technique. His background gave him a proper foundation for his technique but his cerebral approach identified the tactics to make such technique work.
Chapter 2: El Matador
“The bull is stronger, but the matador is smarter.” – Muhammad Ali
Topuria took a hiatus in 2017, giving him the opportunity to further improve his skills. Leaving the Spanish regional scene, Topuria embarked on winning fights in the international scene: two in Europe and two more for the Bahraini promotion BRAVE CF.
His 5th pro fight against another submission grappler in Mika Hamalainen marked a dramatic change in his MMA striking and is the effective debut of today’s pressure boxer known as El Matador. Fig. 4 demonstrates the highlights of the fight and the beginning of his MMA boxing. His submission grappling would take a back seat to his boxing in many future fights, but it would also continue improving alongside his boxing.
Fig. 4
Topuria demonstrated many skills still used today. From his orthodox stance, he jabbed with his lead hand and dexterously used hooks for his power shots. Left hooks to the liver make their 1st appearance in this fight. The combos used were still rudimentary and a work in progress. Cage cutting was not a tactic he was familiar with yet.
Besides evolving into an MMA boxer, another major development of El Matador was the use of his ground strikes. In his first 4 fights, Topuria’s ground and pound was used predominantly from the mount position to create submission openings or back mount entries. In Fig. 5, he used ground punches from guard and half guard to batter his foe. Eventually overwhelmed by the boxing, the foe shot a poor takedown and is finished with a mounted guillotine choke.
Fig. 5
In addition to his boxing approach, Topuria now used heavy punches while standing or kneeling over full or half guard. He alternates between targeting the body and the head to inflict great damage in a short amount of time. The path to least resistance against many future foes was not by submission but by heavy punches.
Topuria’s 6th pro fight marked his 1st championship fight and also his last attempt at making the bantamweight (BW) limit. Missing weight by almost 5 lbs, he was ineligible to win the vacant Cage Warriors BW title. El Matador finds the 99 second Anaconda choke after losing back control as shown in Fig. 6. Besides the finish, the only sequence of interest is Topuria’s continued usage of hooks from the back mount instead of body triangles.
Fig. 6
Topuria’s most advanced submissions are his front head chokes. The proficiency of his Guillotine and Anaconda chokes makes the “turtle” a dangerous grounded position for his opponents. This danger is also present during attempts at getting up while exposing the neck.
Looking to face greater competition, Topuria continued his career, in the Bahraini promotion BRAVE CF, and earning two more wins. The 1st win was a quash match against the 4th debutant foe of Topuria’s career, highlighting how effortlessly a submission finish comes against such levels of competition. The mounted triangle armbar finish is shown in Fig. 3.
The 2nd and last win before entering the UFC provided an important exposure to adversity for Topuria. A tall outfighter who used both stances, the opponent Steven Concalves floored Topuria with a high kick from the southpaw stance. Fig. 7 shows El Matador’s 1st taste of adversity and one where he initially went back to grappling as a plan B. A right overhand eventually gets the finish shortly after the foe escapes tight Anaconda chokes.
Fig. 7
A rear high kick from the southpaw stance scores a knockdown for the foe. Topuria faced great adversity not just from the kick but also from the elbows while attempting the double leg along the cage. Worth noting how the KO finish happened while the foe was in the orthodox stance.
This chapter marks the end of his MMA career prior to joining the UFC. By the end of his pre-UFC tenure, Ilia Topuria’s evolution as a cage fighter is visible, especially in his striking approach. The next chapter illustrates a more familiar fighter to those who know El Matador from his recent fights.
Chapter 3: Guerrero Definitivo
“Fighting is pure chaos, and to be a good fighter you simply have to be prepared mentally and physically to handle that chaos.” – BJ Penn
El Matador’s entry into the UFC happened during the height of the Covid pandemic where the UFC relocated most of their events to Yas Island, Abu Dhabi. Seung Woo Choi withdrew just 9 days prior to a fight against rising contender Youssef Zalal. Seeking his 4th win in 2020, ‘Moroccan Devil’ drew ‘El Matador’ as the late replacement opponent.
Despite being the underdog, Topuria made it clear that he was beyond Zalal’s level no matter where the fight took place. At striking range, Zalal’s unorthodoxy was no match for Topuria’s pressure boxing and pocket craft. This fight was the debut of Topuria’s usage of offensive footwork, shown in Fig. 8, to entrap the opponent along the cage. Topuria did not suffer the common pitfall of poor offensive cage cutting like other MMA boxers. This would greatly lessen opponents’ future strategies of outfighting against Topuria.
Fig. 8
No matter how much lateral movement was used, Zalal’s exits for escaping the fence were cut off by Topuria’s footwork. This would become an integral part of Topuria’s pressure boxing and future victims would find that the only way off the cage is forwards and into Topuria’s counters.
Grappling didn’t go Zalal’s way either as he found himself trapped in multiple front chokes shown in Fig. 9. Many of these appeared to be locked in but Zalal proved to be unchokeable that night. Although pressure boxing was now Topuria’s A game, his UFC debut served as a reminder that his grappling is relevant up to and including the UFC level.
Fig. 9
Zalal often found himself in dangerous rabbit holes of escaping one choke to another. Topuria was able to seamlessly transition between Anaconda, Guillotine, and D’Arce chokes and prove that his submissions are still potent against UFC calibre opponents.
Topuria’s big league debut wasn’t a masterclass though. It was obvious from the dynamic of the fight that his best grappling work during that time happens away from the cage and his understanding of common tactics in cage wrestling, shown in Fig. 10, were elementary. Extended grappling and clinch exchanges along the fence highlighted the fence as being an inconvenience to Topuria’s grappling rather than an additional canvas.
Fig. 10
At one point, Topuria attempted to break a stalemate along the cage by elbowing the foe in the head but the trial-and-error dynamic made it clear that it was a new technique for him. The referee warns him more than once to not target the back of the head.
An MMA field that hadn’t been explored for the sake of defining El Matador is the clinch. Topuria does very little work in the clinch and this continues to be the case today. The handful of exchanges involving Topuria shows that he prioritizes denying and breaking away from the clinch rather than generating striking or grappling offence. Up to this point in his career, Fig. 11 shows the only two notable instances of Topuria generating offence from the clinch.
Fig. 11
The only major instances of Topuria’s offence from the clinch: (a) a lateral drop against Youseff Zalal and (b) a trip against an advancing Jhon Guarin.
Topuria’s next fight against Damon Jackson was a short day in the office as intended. His fight camp was held with MMA Masters and he described it as one of the most difficult he’s had. Fig. 12 highlights that Topuria took the initiative, entrapped the foe, and unleashed body-head combos to secure a round 1 finish. In his post-fight interview, El Matador cites Canelo as an inspiration for his high-level boxing in the cage.
Fig. 12
Topuria’s 2nd UFC fight was a showcase of how far his boxing has come since his 2018 win against Hamalainen. Combinations were more sophisticated than previously seen and complemented his offensive ringcraft. This provided consistent round 1 finishes at the UFC top 30 level.
A continuing theme for Topuria’s approach to the fight game is that (a) he chooses what works best for him and (b) chooses the path of least resistance. In the regional scene and against a short notice opponent, it was submission grappling. Against Damon Jackson and future victims, it was mostly going to be pressure boxing. The next chapter in El Matador’s career highlights how he distinguished himself from the rest of the top 20 featherweights through strategy.
Chapter 4: Técnico, Táctico, Estratego
“Strategy with tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” – Sun Tzu
Up to this point of his career, Topuria demonstrated that he’s a talented submission grappler while continuously improving his boxing and ringcraft. His next two fights against Ryan Hall and Jai Herbert provide a greater insight into the unique strategies employed against his opponents.
Topuria identified what tactics would and wouldn’t work for him as early as his Spanish regional days. While true, this approach without an adaptive strategy makes it difficult to truly become the best in a competitive division. There are no “right moves” in fighting, only right decisions and strategies. Info on what his strategy was for his 1st ten fights is not well documented. The most that can be said is that he consistently chooses the path of least resistance. More sophisticated strategy is needed against the UFC’s best.
Topuria was given the opportunity to shine in the biggest PPV of the year at UFC 264 against a leg locking phenom in Ryan Hall. Although limited in his overall approach to MMA, Ryan Hall was a well-known name and high-level leg locking had a reputation for making good MMA fighters look mediocre.
Prior to the fight, Topuria told his strategy for Ryan Hall across various media:
Apply sound pressure to crowd Hall into the fence
Frustrate his efforts to securing a heel or ankle, shown in Fig. 13
Use transitional offence (grappling à striking) to land impactful punches shown in Fig. 14
Find the opening for a finish by ground strikes within round 1 shown in Fig. 14
Fig. 13
Ryan Hall’s primary method of entering the 50/50 position is by using Imanari rolls. El Matador recognized this and made sure not only to stop them but to also secure rear body locks to further frustrate Hall.
Fig. 14
In addition to controlling where Hall rolls, the rear body lock would serve as a staging point for creating transitional offence. Whether Hall is concerned about rolling for a kneebar or disengaging, Topuria threatened with punches while Hall was facing away. Depending on the situation, Topuria will either disengage from the body lock or land heavy punches if the openings are there.
The overall result of Topuria’s strategy was this:
Topuria was able to control the center of the octagon for most of the fight with Hall trapped along the fence
Hall couldn’t secure an effective grip over any part of Topuria’s legs
Topuria was able to consistently secure the rear body lock from Hall’s Imanari Rolls
Hall was uncomfortable from the rear body lock position because he was unable to recognize whether he was being controlled or punched
Once Hall became stuck from rolling, Topuria secured the KO win
Much of Topuria’s success in this fight involved demonstrating skills that weren’t previously showed before. These skills against Ryan Hall were the ability to land ground strikes against the open guard and from the rear body lock positions. This marked the continued evolution of Topuria’s ground and pound and how well integrated it is within his distinguished strategy.
In his next fight, Topuria was meant to face Movsar Evloev who pulled out and was replaced by Charles Jourdain. A horribly botched weight cut forced Topuria out as well and behind the scenes negotiations briefly sent Topuria to lightweight. His next opponent Jai Herbert resided around the top 50 level of the weight class, far from the top but also presented unique challenges due to his length as athleticism.
Topuria didn’t demonstrate anything that wasn’t already shown in his previous fights. The main story of this fight was Topuria overcoming adversity in round 1 and getting the cold KO finish in round 2. Fig. 15 shows three other notable instances of Topuria getting hurt in addition to the head kick. This bout reinforced what was shown in Topuria’s 8th fight, that Topuria can overcome adversity when it presents itself as a round gone bad due to getting hurt.
Fig. 15
Jai Herbert had four notable sequences where Topuria was either badly hurt or pressed back on his heels. The high kick from the lead leg was only part of the story. Topuria would rebound in round 2 by crowding Jai Herbert and landing a devastating right hook.
The start of Topuria’s cerebral approach to MMA isn’t clear. What is clear is that it was present during his 3rd and 4th UFC fights and will be a major X factor against future opponents. El Matador’s improvement in his skillset is evident during many of his fights, but his overall strategy is much more subtle and there lies his potential. Topuria’s next fight would be the biggest test of his career, an opportunity against a top 10 opponent.
Chapter 5: Prodigio al Contendiente
“Adversity introduces a man to himself.” – Albert Einstein
Making it to the scales this time, Ilia Topuria faced a fellow undefeated FW prospect in Bryce Mitchell. Talented submission grappler “Thug Nasty” is not the most technically efficient fighter but presented unique challenges for El Matador at the top end UFC level. These challenges being (a) offensive wrestling and grappling and (b) an opposing southpaw stance.
Up to this point in his career, Topuria had yet to be taken down and faced attempts in his 5th fight, against Zalal, and against Hall. Bryce Mitchell gave a much more rigorous test compared to previous opponents as shown in Fig. 16. Although Mitchell secured the leg and at times drove El Matador to the cage, he didn’t have the chain wrestling to get a consistent takedown. Topuria’s time in bottom position was limited and meaningful conclusions are hard to draw. A question that does persist is what Topuria’s process from the bottom position is. The probability of him being clueless from the position is very low but analyzing it is pure guesswork at this point.
Fig. 16
Topuria proved to be very difficult to take down on an initial shot due to his awareness and his lower centre of gravity. Conceding the only takedown of his career up this point, this was the only instance of Topuria being forced to his back in a fight. Topuria’s process while on bottom still isn’t known and the best explanation for lack of activity would be that he didn’t want to strain himself trying to get up towards the end of the round.
Fig. 17 highlights a continued theme from previous Topuria fights. His clinch game is almost exclusively in the form of breaks and little offence is generated while inside. These few exchanges demonstrate that he’s limited but not incompetent. An important question worth inquiring is what happens if Topuria is unable to deny or break away from a talented clinch fighter. Adversity comes in many shapes and forms in the sport of MMA. Topuria overcame the adversity of being badly hurt twice in his career. What were to happen if a Kamaru Usman archetype were to face him? We don’t know the answer to this yet.
Fig. 17
Topuria’s clinch exchanges in this fight are sporadic. Clip 2 demonstrates him baiting Mitchell into going for the outside trip by giving up the knee shield. This allows him to turn away from the trip attempt and off of the fence. Clips 3 and 5 show instances of him generated offence in the form of a knee and left hook, neither of which are technically sound.
The 2nd unique challenge that Mitchell presented is the question of how effective Topuria’s boxing is against southpaws. He previously faced two switch-hitters in his 8th and 9th fight. Topuria’s process against southpaws, shown in Fig. 18, was this:
Lack of round kicks and limited hand fighting forced a reliance on punches to score
The usage of jabs and combos built from jabs became sporadic
Combos that started with a rear hand punch were much less sophisticated and were mostly right hook + left hook or right cross + left hook
Fig. 18
A strong low kick reminds Mitchell to switch stances. While facing the southpaw, Topuria shows a much more limited approach to the open stance matchup than against orthodox foes. The jab is less available and the rear hand is the primary tool for landing punches. Notice how Mitchell drifting back into the orthodox stance presents the opportunity for Topuria to fire the combo that lands the knockdown.
The southpaw question for Topuria is very relevant in regards to future foes. If Topuria wants to outscore the likes of Arnold Allen or Max Holloway, he likely needs a more refined process against southpaws. The southpaw stance also indirectly highlighted that his best punches are usually the 3rd or 4th within a combination. This limitation of doing your best work at the end of combinations also applies to scenarios where Topuria is forced to pot-shot to score. Can he outpoint an outfighter who defuses his combination work at the 2nd or 3rd punch?
Topuria has shown continued improvement in his game including ones specific to the type of opponent. The chances of him recognizing and improving this limitation is high, but it has yet to be seen and is something worth keeping an eye on going forward. As his game stands now, Topuria is reliant on pot-shotting with the rear hand vs southpaws and combinations starting from the rear hand rarely go past 2 punches.
Returning to the positives, Topuria’s transitional offence of grappling and striking continued to shine after scoring the knockdown. The turtle position in Fig. 19 was once again shown to be a dangerous spot against El Matador. Heavy punches wore on the foe and Topuria also reinforced how efficient his submissions are at the top 10 level by quickly transitioning from the body lock to the arm triangle.
Fig. 19
Topuria’s fight against Bryce Mitchell once again demonstrated transitional offence by landing punches from the turtle position. This fight also demonstrated a submission within transitional offence as the opponent is trying to get up. In modern MMA, the most prolific submission finishers like Charles Oliveira do their best work in get-up transitions.
Topuria’s graduation from prospect to contender happened by soundly beating Bryce Mitchell. He demonstrated effective takedown defense against the best offensive wrestler he’s faced to date. It also reminded everyone that Topuria’s offensive grappling and transitional work from the rear body lock is potent at the top 10 level. His performance was not perfect however because the question of extending clinch exchanges and opposing southpaws still persist.
Chapter 6: León entre leones
“I’ve been here for 11 years and I said I was a boy among lions. Today I am proving to you and to everyone that I am a lion among lions.” – Charles Oliviera (2021)
Ilia Topuria’s most recent opponent was the heavy-handed boxer-wrestler, Josh Emmett. A recurring theme of Topuria’s opponents has been their limited approach to MMA. Despite his archetype, Emmett was more puncher than boxer and more sprawler than wrestler. Josh Emmett still provided unique puzzles to solve at the top 10 level and was at worst a showcase of how far ahead Topuria is to most of the division’s top 10.
Being his most recent fight, the Topuria who showed up that night was the best Topuria we’ve seen to date. Two important areas of improvement were shown: his boxing that has been a part of his game since 2018 and his offensive grappling that has been part of his life since childhood.
Emmett’s greatest equalizer in many of his fights is his knockout power from his overhand right. Fig. 20 showed that the talented pressure boxer was hardly troubled by this. Emmett consistently found his back to the cage and Topuria picking his shots and working his most sophisticated combos to date.
Fig. 20
Emmett did not have an effective strategy for landing heavy shots on El Matador. Topuria’s strong fundamentals like shoulder rolls and linear retreats kept him safe during Emmett’s blitzes. Emmett was also repeatedly countered in combination by Topuria throughout the fight.
Against Emmett’s bladed stance, Topuria enhanced his strategy of pressure fighting by using effective low kicks shown in Fig. 21. Since the adoption of his boxing style, Topuria made almost no use of any kicks, knees, or elbows. The persistent use of low kicks allowed Topuria to further dampen the foe’s movement and highlighted the continued evolution of El Matador.
Fig. 21
Ilia Topuria first notable low kick was in the opening seconds against Bryce Mitchell. Emmett’s bladed stance enhanced the effectiveness of low kicks in the orthodox vs orthodox matchup and proved to be a major problem that Emmett couldn’t overcome.
After a thorough display of dominance, Topuria showcased his grappling in the final round shown in Fig. 22. Not only were previous techniques and tactics shown, but greater maintenance of position and control was shown. The most notable one was Topuria being able to maintain the turtle position when the opponent used Granby rolls. His recent approach of landing punches as the foe tries to break away has evolved. It could be very soon that Topuria will be able to reliably punish and maintain position and won’t have to choose between the two.
Fig. 22
Topuria’s effective ground and pound from the turtle are cliché at this point. New techniques that weren’t previously shown are maintaining the turtle position against a foe’s Granby rolls, leg rides along the fence, knees to the thigh while holding a rear body lock, and also wrist control. Rounds 2 and 4 were thrashings, round 5 was a showcase.
With all his fights now shown, it’s time to summarize who El Matador is. A talented pressure boxer and a very effective offensive grappler. His best work comes while pressuring the opponent to the cage and from transitional offence against an opponent in the turtle position. His clinch game is primarily in the form of breaking away rather than inflicting damage, scoring takedowns, or securing control. If he isn’t a P4P talent now, he’s on the verge of becoming one. Topuria’s striking and grappling developed relative to his needs and strategies as a fighter, making him a difficult opponent for the other featherweights.
Chapter 7: El Campeón contra El Matador
“Pound for pound what? There is no pound for pound. The belt belongs to nobody.” – Leon Edwards (2022)
Ilia Topuria is scheduled to face the FW king and top P4P talent on February 17th in Anaheim, California. Having yet to reach his peak, El Matador looks to make history by becoming the 1st undefeated FW champion in UFC and WEC history. His opponent, Alexander Volkanovski, has been described by many as being the best MMA fighter that we’ve seen to date. Not only is he one of the most talented and athletic strikers ever, but is also reputed with a high fight IQ and cerebral approach to MMA.
Despite no major regression shown in Volk’s performance against Yair Rodriguez, people are rightfully concerned about his quick return from a concussion. The overall record of UFC fighters aged 35 or over in title fights below Middleweight is 2-23 and Volk reached this age shortly after his most recent win. Many are predicting this fight’s outcome based on historical trends but not enough are predicting the dynamic of how their styles match up.
When it comes to predicting fight dynamic, new title challengers often invoke comparisons to their predecessors. The most common comparison being made in media as of now is Volk vs Holloway 1. Topuria vs Volk does have a handful of things in common with that fight, but the dynamic is substantially different. I once asked an important question regarding that fight:
“Could the dynamic of Volk vs Holloway 1 (or any fight) be accurately predicted based on the fight footage and relevant media available up to the day of the fight?”
I still don’t have a good answer to this, but it’s the most important question you can ask regarding a fight dynamic’s prediction.
Instead of conducting analysis, I have 3 open ended questions that could better illustrate the dynamic of Topuria’s next fight. These questions come from the perspective of a potential Topuria win and a short explanation of the question’s importance is given. If he wants to be the next UFC FW champion, he would need to address these:
Does Topuria have a solution for Volk’s triple threat of jab, inside low kick, and outside low kick?
Like Georges St-Pierre who made use of the jab + low kick + double leg where the foe doesn’t know what’s coming, Volk has made use of the jab + outside low kick + inside low kick. Having a solution to this triple threat will be crucial to beating Volk when neither fighter is moving forward.
Can Ilia Topuria diffuse Volk’s transitional offence?
The champ’s transitional offence comes in many forms unlike Topuria’s. If Topuria cannot defuse Volk’s transitional offence, he will find it very difficult to beat Volk on the backfoot or prevent Volk from taking the initiative.
Will Topuria be able to consistently deny prolonged clinch exchanges?
Volk being one of the best MMA clinch fighters means that the clinch holds the biggest gap in skill between the two. Not only does Topuria have to actively avoid clinches along the cage, but he also has to be mindful of potential clinch entries while pressuring Volk. If Topuria cannot deny these, he’ll have a more difficult time crowding and pressuring Volk.
These questions roughly correspond to whether Topuria can beat Volk in (1) neutral space, (2) on the backfoot, and (3) on the front foot. The answers to these questions are worthy of articles themselves and I invite the readers to explore the topic of predicting fight dynamic rather than fight outcome. Looking forward to seeing this historic fight at UFC 298.
